:Product: 20040304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Region 567
(S12W29) produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout
the period.  The largest event was a C2 x-ray flare that occurred at
04/1007Z.  A weak delta magnetic structure has become evident in a
cluster of intermediate sunspots near region center.  An emerging
flux region, Region 569 (S11E34) with several rapidly developing
umbra, was assigned today.  The remainder of the disk and limb were
quiet today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 567 is capable of producing an isolated low
level M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The high
speed solar wind stream has been on a steady decline since the
middle of the period (from 600 to near 450 km/s at the time of this
writing).  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 098
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar  105/110/110
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  008/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  008/010-007/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01