:Product: 20040305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  New Region 570
(S13E84) produced several C-class flares today, the largest was a C6
x-ray event that occurred at 05/0912Z.  Currently, a large
asymmetrical sunspot has emerged onto the visible disk and further
analysis of this region is pending.  Region 567 (S12W42) underwent
no significant changes today and flare production was limited to
several B-class events.  The largest was a B9 x-ray flare that
occurred at 05/0103Z.  LASCO imagery does not depict any significant
CME activity associated with today's events.  The remainder of the
disk was fairly quiescent today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 567 exhibits the magnetic complexity
to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    40/50/50
Class X    10/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 107
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  115/120/120
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01