:Product: 20040306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. 
Region 570 (S13E70) produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/1217Z. 
Multiple lesser C-class flares were also observed throughout the
day.  A cluster of trailing sunspots became visible early in the
period.  There is a significant distance between the lead and
trailing sunspots (over 15 heliospheric degrees) although initial
magnetic analysis suggest that all features associated to plague
field are one region.  Region 567 (S12W55) produced two low level
C-class flares early in the period.  The sunspot coverage increased
since yesterday although the weak delta complex separated into two
distinct sunspots today, indicating some decay in magnetic field
structure.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through 7 and 8 March.  The onset
of an intense solar sector boundary crossing is anticipated on 9
March, which precedes a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. 
Active to minor storm conditions are expected with the onset.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 105
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  005/008-005/008-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/45
Minor storm           05/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/15