:Product: 20040308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S14E46)
produced a C2.3 flare at 08/2011 UTC.  This region exhibited slight
growth over the past 24 hours, to an area of 750 millionths.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 570 has the potential to produce C- and
isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 9 March, with increasing
activity to active and isolated minor storm conditions on 10 and 11
March.  Increased activity is likely as Earth's magnetic field comes
under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream originating
from a coronal hole in geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 108
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  012/015-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/10