:Product: 20040309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 570 (S14E34) has
produced numerous B- and C-class flares, including a C1.3/Sf at
09/0648 UTC.  No significant development was observed from regions
on the visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. 
Increased activity is most likely due to the effects of a
co-rotating interaction region interacting with Earth's magnetic
field.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with occassional minor storm
conditions from the effects of high speed solar wind as a coronal
hole moves into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 109
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  002/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  015/020-015/020-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           40/40/40
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           50/50/50
Major-severe storm    15/15/15