:Product: 20040311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 570 (S13E07)
produced minor flare activity, including a C1.3/Sf at 11/0215 UTC. 
Region 570 maintained its size, but increased in magnetic complexity
to a beta-gamma-delta configuration.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions.  Earth's magnetic field continues to be under the
influence of a geoeffective coronal hole with associated high speed
solar wind.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
minor storming possible, on 12-13 March.  Activity should decrease
on 14 March as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 113
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  110/110/100
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  036/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  020/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  018/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           45/45/40
Major-severe storm    15/10/10