:Product: 20040312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 570 (S14W05) produced an
impulsive C3/Sf at 12/0237Z with minor centimetric radio bursts. The
large leading sunspot cluster in this region began to fragment this
period and the trailing spots have decayed considerably; however, a
weak delta configuration is still evident. A new bipolar sunspot
group formed north and center on the disk and was numbered as Region
572 (N19W05). New Region 573 (S14E71) was also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Occasional C-class activity is expected from Region
570 with a slight chance of an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A high
speed stream associated with a large transequatorial coronal hole
is responsible for the current disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods possible. The coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
continue through 13 March. Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated
active periods are expected on 14 and 15 March as the high speed
stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 108
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  017/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  022/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  015/020-010/012-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01