:Product: 20040313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 570 (S13W20) produced C1
flares at 12/2341Z and 13/1354Z. The latter was very impulsive and
had associated minor centimetric radio bursts and a 5,300 sfu burst
on 245 MHz. This region continues to slowly decay, but a clear delta
configuration persists within one of the three distinct penumbral
fields in the leader spots. The new bipolar spot group numbered
yesterday as Region 572 (N19W19) continues to develop, but activity
has been limited to occasional point brightenings. No other
significant activity was noted.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Further C-class activity is likely from Region 570.
There is a slight chance for an M-class flare from this region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The high speed
coronal hole stream that produced several minor storm periods in
recent days is now subsiding. Solar wind speed decreased to below
500 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 Mev electron
flux at geoshnchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 104
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  100/100/110
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  010/012-008/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01