:Product: 20040314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 570 (S13W32)
produced occasional B-class activity including a B3 flare with an
associated 130 sfu Tenflare at 14/2035Z. This region continues to
slowly decay and the delta configuration that persisted for the past
several days is no longer evident. No other significant activity or
changes were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible from Region 570.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Slightly elevated solar
wind speed with periods of sustained southward Bz produced the
disturbed conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 103
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01