:Product: 20040315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region 570
(S14W46) continues in a slow decay phase, exhibiting only occasional
minor plage fluctuations. A 10 degree filament eruption occurred at
15/0830Z from near N22W28. An associate weak CME was observed on
LASCO imagery, but it is not expected to be geoeffective. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare in
Region 570.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated
minor storm period between 15/0000 - 0300Z. Solar wind speed is
still slightly elevated, but is in slow decline. The IMF Bz was
predominantly southward near -5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 101
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  100/105/115
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01