:Product: 20040316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 573
(S12E20) produced the largest flare during the period, a B7 x-ray
event occurring at 16/1551Z.  Region 570 (S14W66) remains a magnetic
beta-gamma complex.  Newly numbered Region 574 (S02E70) has yet to
fully rotate into view for a good analysis.  An eruptive prominence
occurred on the northwest limb, which began at 16/1530Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Regions 570 and 574 both have the potential
to produce C-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 110
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  115/115/110
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01