:Product: 20040317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels today.  Region
574 (S02E56) showed significant growth in sunspot coverage and
magnetic complexity since yesterday.  The dominant central sunspots
appear to be merging to form a small magnetic delta complex.  This
region produced multiple B and C-class flares throughout the period.
Region 572 (N19W72) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 17/0931Z with an
associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity
of 1207 km/s.  In response to this flare a CME was seen emanating
from the solar northwest limb (on LASCO imagery) which does not
appear to be Earth directed.  Region 570 (S14W80) continues to show
a slow, steady decay.  Regions 575 (S18W02), 576 (S18W38), and 577
(S01E77) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 574 has a small chance of producing an isolated
low-level M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    20/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 110
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  115/110/105
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  005/008-005/008-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01