:Product: 20040318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. 
Region 574 (S02E43) produced the largest flare of the period, an
M1/Sf occurring at 18/0517Z.  Multiple lesser B and C-class flares
occurred in this region today.  Sunspot area coverage continues to
show a steady increase.  Newly numbered Region 578 (N15E76)
currently shows a single sunspot.  Even so, several B and C-class
flares were observed from this region today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 574 continues to be capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A brief
active period was observed between 18/0000 and 0300Z at the middle
latitudes.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  21 March
may experience isolated active conditions due to the combination of
a solar sector boundary crossing and the potential of a glancing
blow from the C1 flare and related CME from yesterday.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 115
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar  120/120/115
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  006/008-010/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/10