:Product: 20040319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity reached moderate levels.  Region 578
(N15E60) produced an M1/1f flare at 18/2236Z near the east limb. 
This region exhibited slight growth since yesterday and produced a
number of minor C-class flares.  Region 574 (S04E28) has shown some
decrease in area size and lost the weak delta configuration that
began forming in the intermediate spots yesterday.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity.  Region 574
and 578 have the potential for minor M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  A weak coronal hole
may arrive on 20 March or 21 March.  No significant activity is
expected from this coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    25/15/15
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 112
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  010/012-010/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05