:Product: 20040320RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Mar 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 578 (N15E47) produced a C1 flare at 20/2025Z along with eight B-class flares. This region grew in area coverage and exhibits weak polarity mixing but still maintains a beta magnetic configuration. Region 574 (S04E14) continues in a slow decay and has produce little activity. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance of isolated moderate level activity. Region 578 has C-class flare potential and a small chance of an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. One period of isolated active conditions was observed at the Boulder magnetometer. The Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated periods of active conditions may occur on 21 March, particularly during local night time hours. III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar Class M 15/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Mar 114 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 112 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 010/015-008/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 10/05/05