:Product: 20040321RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 576 (S07W91),
while transiting the west limb, produced the largest flare of the
day; a C6 flare at 21/0952Z.  Region 578 (N15E34) continues to
exhibit slow growth and while maintaining a beta magnetic
configuration, shows evidence of mixing polarities.  The majority of
the B-class and C-class activity observed today originated from
Region 578.  Region 574 (S04E01) continues a slow decay but
maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 574 and 578 have C-class potential.  A small
chance of isolated moderate activity is possible from Region 578.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 111
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar  110/110/115
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05