:Product: 20040322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 574 (S03W13)
produced a C8/Sf flare at 22/0616Z.  This region continues to decay
and has simplified in magnetic complexity to a beta configuration. 
Region 578 (N16E20) shows signs of decreasing area and produced a
number of B-class and minor C-class flares today.  New Region 579
(S11E48) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 574 and 578 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 116
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  110/115/120
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  008/008-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05