:Product: 20040323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. The four disk regions grew
marginally during the past 24 hours. Only two C-class flares
occurred, at 0042 UTC from Region 578 (N15E05) and at 0725 UTC from
Region 574 (S04W25). Little else of significance was observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 118
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar  120/120/115
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  007/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05