:Product: 20040325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Newly visible Region 582
(N16E72) rotated onto the disk, elevating activity levels. It
produced an M1/Sf at 24/2329UTC, and an M2/Sf at 0439UTC. The region
emerged on the invisible disk and arrives with hot plage and a
bright x-ray corona. Elsewhere, the six other visible regions were
mostly quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, due to additional M-level activity from Region 582.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE data show a slight
increase in solar wind radial speed and magnetic field strength
through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geostationary orbit was high for a short time.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled early, then slightly more
disturbed through the interval. A high speed stream may begin to
affect the field late on 28 March.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 127
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  130/135/130
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  005/010-010/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05