:Product: 20040326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels.  Region
582 (N16E59) continued to show growth in sunspot coverage and
magnetic complexity.  Although, this region was limited to minor
B-class flare production today.  Region 574 (S04W65) has undergone
steady decay throughout the period.  Region 578 (N15W34) showed a
slight decay in sunspot coverage.  Region 581 (S03E53) exhibited
grow and now has sunspots in both polarities.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 582 has the potential to produce an
M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer
between 26/1500 and 1800Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.  A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to be
geo-effective throughout the period with isolated minor storm
conditions possible, mostly at higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 124
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar  125/120/115
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  010/015-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05