:Product: 20040327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 586
(S18W80) produced four, low-level C-class flares during the past 24
hours. Region 582 (N14E45) continues to be the largest group on the
disk but was quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event, with Region
582 being the most likely source.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind data
show the continuation and intensification of the high speed stream.
The velocity increased from around 600 km/s up to about 900 km/s
between 1500Z and 2100Z. At the same time density decreased,
temperature increased, and Alfven wave activity in the magnetic
field components appeared to increase.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field should be
mostly unsettled to active for the next three days (27-29 March) as
the high speed stream is likely to persist.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 128
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar  125/120/115
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  015/020-015/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15