:Product: 20040328RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a
few, low-level C-class flares. Most of these were from Region 582
(N15E30) which is the largest region on the disk and appears to be
growing slowly. New Region 587 (S13E73) rotated into view today as a
bright, moderately sized (110 millionths) bipolar region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during
the next three days (28-30 March) with Region 582 the most likely
source for energetic activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active, with a minor
storm period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind data show the continued
presence of a high speed stream. There was an overall decreasing
trend in solar wind velocity: initial speeds around 900 km/s
declined to around 650 km/s by forecast issue time. Fluctuations in
the interplanetary magnetic field were weak (-6 to + 6 nT), and
disappeared altogether between 1300-2000 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days (28-29
March). A decrease to predominantly unsettled is expected by the
third day (30 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 129
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  125/120/120
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10