:Product: 20040330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 582 (N14E04) produced
numerous C-class flares. The largest of these was a C8/Sf at 29/2324
UTC. The Region continues to be the largest and most active group on
the solar disk. The other regions on the solar disk were stable and
quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 582 during the next three days (31 March - 2 April)
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speed continues to be enhanced due to a
high speed stream, but showed a continuing declining trend. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to quiet tomorrow (31 March). Conditions
should be predominantly quiet for the second and third days (1-2
April).
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 127
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr  130/130/135
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05