:Product: 20040331RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Mar 31 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 582 (N14W09) produced many B and C-class flares throughout the period. The sunspot coverage decreased slightly today while the gamma magnetic structure remained intact. Region 581 (S53W15) produced a C2 x-ray flare at 31/2308Z that was preceded by a small filament eruption. Region 587 (S13E37) showed a significant growth in sunspot area during the past 24 hours although there was no flare activity noted in this region today. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 582 remains capable of producing M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with periods of unsettled conditions are anticipated throughout the period. III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Mar 121 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 111 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 005/008-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01