:Product: 20040401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Region 582
(N14W22) continued to show steady decay while producing the largest
flare of the period, a C1 x-ray event that occurred at 01/1711Z. 
The magnetic beta-gamma structures in the lead polarity have become
less organized however, they remain intact.  Region 587 (S13E24)
underwent decay in sunspot area during the period.  New Region 588
(S12E74) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 582 remains capable of producing a low level
M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled for 2-3 April.  Updated LASCO
imagery depicts a full halo CME from the long duration C3 x-ray
flare that occurred at 31/1151Z.  A resulting shock passage is
anticipated on 4 April with active to minor storm conditions
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 113
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr  115/110/110
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  005/010-008/010-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/40
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10