:Product: 20040404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 588 (S16E40)
produced a C3.1 flare at 04/1626 UTC.  No significant development
was observed from active regions on the visible disk, and no new
regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Regions 587 (S14W17) and 588 may produce isolated
C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. 
Increased activity may be due to the continued infuence of transient
activity from the arrival of a CME on 03 April.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions throughout the period,
with isolated minor storming possible on days one and two (5-6
April) from a high speed solar wind stream associated with a
recurrent coronal hole that is rotating into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 109
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  021/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  020/020-020/030-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/20