:Product: 20040405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 588 (S15E25)
produced numerous B-class flares during the period, and the region
produced an M1.7/1f flare at 05/0555 UTC.  A Type II radio sweep
(with a speed of 836 km/s) was observed shortly after the M1.7
flare, and LASCO imagery indicated a partial-halo CME emerging from
the southeast limb at 0606 UTC with a plane-of-sky speed of
approximately 750 km/s.  This CME does not appear to be directed
towards Earth, but it may provide a glancing blow to the geomagnetic
field.  Region 588 has developed a north-south orientation and
increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration.  New
Region 589 (N10E54) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Regions 588 and 587 (S14W31) may produce C- and isolated M-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.  ACE
data indicate that Earth's geomagnetic field came under the
influence of a corotating interaction region late on 4 November. 
Solar wind speed at ACE began to steadily increase to around 450
km/s at the end of the period, possibly indicating the beginning
effects of a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor storm
conditions on days one and two (6-7 November) from the effects of
the coronal hole.  Activity should subside on day three (8 November)
to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 109
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  018/020-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/20