:Product: 20040407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Solar x-ray flux 
remained at background levels throughout the period.  Region 588
(S17E01) maintained its size, and is now in a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.  New Region 590 (S09W71) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 588 still has the potential to produce C-and
isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed
at ACE began a steady decline at 06/2300 UTC and is now at
approximately 450 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with periods of minor storm
conditions possible on day one and two (8-9 April).  Two CMEs,
associated with solar flares on 6 and 7 April, may cause activity in
Earth's geomagnetic field.  Geomagnetic activity should subside to
unsettled levels on day three (10 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 098
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  025/030-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/20