:Product: 20040413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  A single
B-class flare occurred at 13/0532Z on the northeast limb.  There was
no other significant activity observed today.  Region 588 (S13W80)
has shown decreasing area coverage and has simplified in magnetic
complexity to an alpha configuration.  New Region 592 (S12E59) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance of low level activity.  Increased
emissions on the east limb were observed in NOAA SXI imagery and
suggests returning regions over the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 093
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01