:Product: 20040414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 591
(S16W25) produced multiple low level B-class flares today.  This
reversed polarity region increased its sunspot area and has become a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  A delta structure is
evident in the dominant lead polarity spot.  LASCO imagery indicated
that there was CME activity during the period which appears to have
all been backsided.  Regions 593 (S20E43) and 594 (N15E69) were both
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 591 has the potential of producing
C-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 095
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  004/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  004/010-005/010-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01