:Product: 20040415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Activity
consisted of low level B-class flares until Region 591 (S16W38)
produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 15/1644Z.  This region remains
a magnetic beta-gamma-delta configuration although the delta
structure seen in the dominant lead polarity spot appears very weak.
It also continues to display reverse polarity characteristics.  The
remainder of the active regions were quiescent during the period. 
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 591 has the potential of producing isolated low
level M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 097
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  001/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  004/010-006/010-006/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01