:Product: 20040416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest
flare of the period was a B8 from newly numbered Region 595(S09E68).
Region 591(S16W52) continues to show signs of decay but still has
some weak polarity mixing.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 591 and 595 have the potential for C-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Two periods of
active conditions were observed due to elevated wind speed and a
weak coronal hole influence.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of
isolated active conditions due to elevated solar wind speeds.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 097
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  008/012-006/010-003/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01