:Product: 20040417RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels.  A C1 x-ray
flare occurred on the solar southeast limb at 17/1142Z.  The source
region for this flare is yet to be numbered due to its location on
the limb.  Region 591 (S16W65) continues to decay and was quiescent
throughout the period.  Region 595 (S09E55) produced low level
B-class flares early in the period and has since shown decay to the
sunspot area.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A period of active conditions occurred between 17/0300 and 0600Z at
the middle latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Apr 098
Predicted   18 Apr-20 Apr  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        17 Apr 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  006/010-003/008-003/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01