:Product: 20040418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed in newly numbered Region 596 (S08E60). This developing
D-type group exhibited frequent brightness fluctuations throughout
the period. New spots have reemerged in Region 593 (S18W11). No
significant changes were observed in the remaining small active
regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Isolated C-class events are likely from Region 596.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 18/0600 - 0900Z. Solar wind speed ranged from 350 to
400 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Apr 109
Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr  115/115/120
90 Day Mean        18 Apr 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01