:Product: 20040420RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 596 (S09E31)
remains the largest region on the visible solar disk at 340
millionths of white light coverage.  A new region was numbered today
as Region 597 (S06W60).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 596 has the potential for continued C-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
periods of active conditions are possible on 23 April due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Apr 111
Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr  115/120/120
90 Day Mean        20 Apr 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  005/010-010/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01