:Product: 20040421RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 596 (S07E19)
produced the only C-class events in the past 24 hours.  The daily
consensus for this region has it as a magnetic beta-gamma
configuration, however, earlier in the period a small delta
configuration developed.  A new region was numbered today as Region
598 (S05W30).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 596 is expected to continue producing C-class flares with a
chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Apr 113
Predicted   22 Apr-24 Apr  115/120/120
90 Day Mean        21 Apr 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  005/008-010/010-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01