:Product: 20040422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 596 (S08E04)
produced an M1/1n event at 22/0219 UTC.  This region continues to be
the region of interest as it approaches the center of the visible
solar disk.  With a white light area coverage of 400 millionths and
a magnetic beta-gamma configuration the region has also displayed a
weak delta in the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 596 remains capable of producing an isolated
M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 117
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  010/010-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01