:Product: 20040423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 597 (S08W91)
produced an M1 at 1150 UTC, as well as numerous C-class flares. The
region is currently rotating out of view. Region 596 (S08W09) is the
largest group on the disk but was quiet and stable during the past
24 hours, and appears to be slowly declining.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-flare from
either Region 597 (next 24 hours only), or from Region 596.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a
period of minor storm levels at high latitudes. Real-time solar wind
data from ACE indicate the presence of a weak, high-speed stream
with velocities around 400-450 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods
during the next three days as the high speed stream is expected to
persist.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M    25/20/20
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Apr 115
Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        23 Apr 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  012/015-012/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/15