:Product: 20040424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 597, which has
rotated beyond west limb at latitude S08, produced an M1 flare at
23/2112 UTC. The region produced numerous additional C-class flares
through around 1400 UTC, but is now behind the limb. Newly numbered
Region 599 (N14E51) emerged on the disk and grew steadily. The
region had an area of 120 millionths with mature penumbra on the
leader and trailer by the time of forecast issue (24/2200 UTC). The
group has been producing frequent upper level B-class and lower
level C-class flares. Region 596 (S09W21) continues to be the
largest group on the disk but was stable and appears to be decaying.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 599 is expected to be the most productive group, although
Region 596 might contribute some activity. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
isolated active period at high latitudes between 0900-1200 UTC.
Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated with values running
between 420 to 480 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods at high latitudes for the next 24 hours (25 April).
Conditions should decline to mostly unsettled levels at all
latitudes for the second and third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Apr 112
Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr  115/115/120
90 Day Mean        24 Apr 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  016/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  012/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/10