:Product: 20040427RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 599 (N14E02)
produced a C3.1 flare at 27/0723 UTC with an associated Type II
flare with a speed of 732 km/s. LASCO imagery was not available, but
EIT imagery indicated significant dimming in the area of Region 599,
suggesting the existence of a CME.  No significant development was
observed on regions on the visible disk, and no new regions were
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 599 has the potential to produce C- and isolated
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active or minor
storm conditions possible on day three (30 April) from a CME
associated with the C3 flare observed today.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Apr 095
Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr  095/090/090
90 Day Mean        27 Apr 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  005/008-005/008-010/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/10