:Product: 20040428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 596 (S08W79)
was stable in size and Region 599 (N15W11) exhibited gradual decay. 
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 596
and 599.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  A rise in solar wind
speed from 400 to 550 km/s was observed late in the period which may
have given rise to isolated active geomagnetic conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active to
minor storm conditions possible on day two (30 April).  Activity
should return to quiet to unsettled levels on 1 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 090
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  005/008-010/020-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/05