:Product: 20040429RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 596 (S07W92)
has moved beyond the visible limb, but produced some minor B-Class
flaring as it departed.  A new active region (N05E61) has appeared
near the East limb, and produced a minor B-class flare event on 29
Apr at 0926 UTC.  It has some plage, but no discernable spots and
therefore has not yet been numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to rise to active levels for the 30th of April, due to a
possible transient passage associated with a C3.1 x-ray event on 27
April.  The geomagnetic field should return to quiet to unsettled
levels for the 1st and 2nd of May.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 089
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  015/020-010/010-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05