:Product: 20040430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Newly numbered Region 602
(S14W53) generated a single C-class x-ray event on 30 April at 0547
UTC.  Region 599 (N17W41) continues to decay in both area and number
of spots.  Along with Region 602, Region 601 (S09W20) was newly
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. 
Portions of a solar wind transient associated with a C3.1 x-ray
event on 27 April likely elevated magnetic activity early on the
30th of April, but subsided to quiet levels by 1200 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet from 30 April through 02 May, rising to
unsettled by 03 May.  A high speed solar wind stream associated with
a coronal hole is expected to impact the magnetic field by 03 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 089
Predicted   01 May-03 May  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  008/012-010/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10