:Product: 20040502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  There has been a number
of C-class events produced by Region 601 (S10W47), with the largest
being a C8.3 on 02 May at 1115 UTC.  There was a weak coronal mass
ejection (CME) produced by yesterday's C9.5, also produced by Region
601, that appears to have an earthward-directed component.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low.  Region 601 continues to have a slight chance to produce an
M-class x-ray event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar
wind speeds fell to below 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic
field is holding steady northward.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for 03 May.  A
high-speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole is
likely to  graze the Earth's magnetic field.  By 04 May, this should
pass, and magnetic activity should return to unsettled levels.  With
the onset of the transient associated with the weak CME, activity
should again increase to active levels with periods of minor
storming for 05 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 098
Predicted   03 May-05 May  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        02 May 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  015/020-012/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/05/10