:Product: 20040503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 601 (S10W61)
produced several low C-class flares, including a C1.0 at 03/1343
UTC.  New Region 604 (S19E52) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 601 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.  Isolated
active and minor storm conditions are possible on day three (6 May)
as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 091
Predicted   04 May-06 May  100/095/095
90 Day Mean        03 May 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  010/015-012/015-018/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/10