:Product: 20040504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 601 (S09W77)
produced several low B-class flares.  No significant development was
observed in regions on the visible disk. New Region 605 (S12W02) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 601 may produce C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm conditions
on days one and two (5-6 May) as a coronal hole high speed wind
stream moves into geoeffective position.  Activity should subside to
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (7 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 087
Predicted   05 May-07 May  095/095/090
90 Day Mean        04 May 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  018/020-015/015-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05