:Product: 20040505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed in Regions 603 (S16W90) and 605 (S12W16). Region 605
continues in a slow growth phase and currently exhibits minor
magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was noted.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 605 has potential for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole
stream became geoeffective late in the period. Solar wind speed
increased from near 450 km/s to approximately 580 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. A minor disturbance
associated with a high speed coronal hole stream will likely result
in unsettled to active periods through 6 May. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 7 and 8 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 089
Predicted   06 May-08 May  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        05 May 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  015/015-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/01