:Product: 20040506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 605 (S11W30) now
exhibits a simple beta configuration having decayed in both size
and magnetic complexity. Region 604 (S19E10), the only other sunspot
group on the visible disk, was quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high speed solar
wind stream that became geoeffective yesterday remains in effect.
Solar wind speed was approximately 550 km/s, but IMF Bz was
predominantly northward.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The high speed coronal hole
stream in progress now may produce isolated active periods through
07 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 086
Predicted   07 May-09 May  085/090/095
90 Day Mean        06 May 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01