:Product: 20040508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Only low level
B-class flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated periods of active
conditions are possible for 10-11 May as a result of the C1 flare
and CME on 07 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 087
Predicted   09 May-11 May  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        08 May 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  005/010-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05