:Product: 20040509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Two new regions were
numbered today:  Region 607 (S11E00) and Region 608 (S04E68).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic fields is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 093
Predicted   10 May-12 May  095/095/090
90 Day Mean        09 May 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  010/015-010/015-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01